The Ether (ETH), price has not been able to close above $1.400 in the last 29 days. It has also been trading within a tight $150 range. The $1,250 support seems difficult to break and the $1.400 resistance seems impossible to break. However, Ether traded at $2,000. Two months ago. The Ether price range is simply an indication of how volatile cryptocurrencies can become.
Investors are calm, Ether trades at 50% above the $880 intraday high on June 18. Despite the most significant upgrade in the network’s history, Ether is still at 65%.
BNB Chain, Ethereum’s largest rival, was hit with a cross-chain security flaw on Oct. 6. BNB Chain, which has $5.4 billion worth of smart contract deposits, was forced to temporarily suspend transactions due to the $568 million exploit.
Ether has outperformed other smart contracts such as BNB, Cardano, and Solana (SOL), by 14% since September. However, its TVL in ETH terms increased 9% over the same period. This indicates that the Ethereum network’s problems, such as the $3 average transaction fee, weighed heavily on the ETH price.
TradingView: Ether vs. MATIC. SOL. BNB. Source: TradingView
To understand the position of whales and market makers, traders should examine Ether’s derivatives markets data.
Option traders are still moderately risk-averse
Professional traders often overcharge for downside or upside protection. The 25% delta skew indicates this. If traders were expecting an Ether price crash then the options markets skew indicator could move higher than 12%. Generalized excitement, on the other hand, reflects a negative 12 percent skew.
Ether 60-day Options 25% Delta skew Source: Laevitas.ch
The index’s value indicates that traders are less likely to take on downside risk protection. Since Sept. 19, the indicator has been indicating fear. It last saw a value of below 10% on September 19. This day marked the temporary bottom in a 28% weekly correction. The $1,250 support was strengthened following such a test.
Long-to-short data shows traders adding longs
The long-to-short net ratio of top traders does not include externalities that could have only impacted the options market. It is possible to determine whether professional traders are bullish or bearish by aggregating positions on spot, perpetual, and quarterly futures contracts.
Sometimes there are methodological differences between exchanges. Therefore, viewers should pay attention to changes and not absolute numbers.
Top traders in exchanges Ether long-to–short ratio Source: Coinglass
Binance saw a slight increase in its long to short ratio between Oct. 13-17, when the indicator moved from 1.04 – 1.07 in four days. These traders increased their bullish bets slightly.
Huobi data shows that there was a steady pattern. The long-to-short indicator remained at 0.98 throughout. OKX exchange saw the metric drop to 0.72 on October 13, favoring shorts, but rebound to 1.00 today.
According to the long-toshort indicator, top traders on these three exchanges have been increasing their long positions in an average fashion since Oct. 13, when the $1,200 support test was completed.
To sustain the $1,250 support, you need to have skewed and leverage
Despite Ether’s 12% gain since Oct. 13th, when it was $1,185, there was not much improvement in pro traders derivatives positions. Options traders are concerned that the price could fall below $1,250, as the skew indicator is still above the 10% threshold.
If market makers and whales were convinced of a sharp price correction then that would have been reflected by the long-to-short ratio of top exchange traders.
Both metrics should be closely monitored by investors. To maintain the $1,250 support level, the 25% delta skew must remain at 18% and the long-to–short ratio should be above 0.80. These indicators indicate whether top traders are becoming bearish.
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