2018 Ethereum price fractal suggests a $400 bottom, but analysts say the merge is a ‘wildcard’

A bear market is a time when there’s no relief for the weary. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows that investor sentiment has been in an “extreme fear” state for 70 consecutive days.

The market is looking for a catalyst that will reverse the trend. However, the Ethereum Merge (ETH) Merge seems unlikely to spark a rally. If this is true, the market may continue to trend sideways or down until September’s tentative Merge date.

Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data show that Ether price is still trading in the same trading area it has since June 13, and it is currently trading at the upper resistance of $1,240.

ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Analysts are recommending that you keep an eye out for the Merge, which is still months away and very little on the Ethereum roadmap in the immediate future.

Ether trades now above its moving averages

Peter Brandt, a futures trader, posted this chart with the simple message “Maybe baby $ETH” as a message of hope.

ETH/USD 1-day chart. Source: Twitter

Crypto trader Albert III posted the following chart, which provides additional context for Brandt’s observation. It highlights the fact that Ether has been trading higher than several important moving averages.

ETH/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Twitter.

According to the analyst,

“We had a bullish cross of 200 and 50 moving averages on 4h. We are looking for more upside locally.

Ethereum’s Merge can be described as the “wildcard”.

Jarvis Labs released a report called “ETH 30d returns outlook”, which provides a more detailed perspective on Ether’s future. It used the 30-day returns metric “measure the short term profit and loss of the aggregated markets at a given point in time”.

Ethereum returns within 30 days Source: Jarvis Labs

The chart shows that Ether’s 30-day returns are “moving towards zero” after being extremely negative since April. This suggests that the Merge is approaching and the market is becoming more bullish.

Jarvis Labs says that instances where 30-da returns fall below 0% in bull markets are “prime buying opportunities” while flips above 0% can be considered ideal selling opportunities during bear markets.

Comparing the Ether price action in Q4 2018, where it consolidated in a low $200 range, before dropping to $82 in December. “A repeat of this fractal now would bring Ether up to the $400 range by 2022,” said the author.

Ethereum returns within 30 days Source: Jarvis Labs

Jarvis Labs claims that if the fractal replays itself, all pumps above the $1,700 mark will trigger sell-offs over the next year.

Jarvis Labs stated,

“Conversely, a flip from resistance to support of $1,700 would be the same as summer 2020’s flip at $350. This could signal the beginning of a new bull run.”

Jarvis Labs cautioned that although “short-term rallies up to $1,400-$1,700 range may be possible”, traders should be cautious as they “are likely to be met with strong selling.”

Related: ECB report compares PoW to fossil fuel vehicles, PoS and electric vehicles

The supply zone is $1,420

Crypto Tony, an analyst and pseudonymous user on Twitter, covered the Ether outlook in the short term. He referenced the following chart to outline the next level resistance that should be monitored.

ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Twitter

Crypto Tony said.

“I am looking to fill the gap above as we make our way towards the next supply zone at $1.420.” You should do your research before making any investment or trading decision.

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