Bitcoin (BTC), although it may be seven times more than its last halving, could rise to 300% if history repeats itself.
Ecoinometrics, an on-chain data source, has shown that BTC/USD could surpass estimates if it follows historical precedent.
Bitcoin: You haven’t seen anything yet, when compared to 2017.
Bitcoin trades at 7.3 times its current price since May 2020’s halving. However, if the previous halving cycle is any indication, bitcoin will continue to trade at 7.3 times its current price until it reaches 30 times.
This data is based on the approximately four-year halving cycles during which Bitcoin has displayed identical behavior since its inception.
Despite some traders’ impatience, the current cycle is closely linked to the previous two.
As an example, 2017 could see a peak in Bitcoin’s price of $253,800. Even then, Bitcoin would still be operating within pre-determined parameters.
Ecoinometrics also provides data on Ether (ETH), and its performance relative the stage of Bitcoin’s halving cycle.
The largest altcoin experienced much greater comparative gains than Bitcoin — 120x its halving price was the peak of last cycle in 2018.
A repeat performance would result in ETH/USD trading at $22,300 — which is again possible.
To replicate its 2017 correction, Bitcoin’s price would have to drop to $42,000. ETH’s value would plummet to $1,347.
Chart showing the post-halving performance of Bitcoin and Ether Source: Ecoinometrics/Twitter
1 BTC = 1 BTC
These high-stakes figures may seem difficult to understand, but they pale in comparison with Willy Woo’s well-known data analyst.
Related: Bitcoin price drop to $55K forecasted by trader
Woo said in a tweet that the Bitcoin halving cycle will be unique in a specific way. It will see things priced in Bitcoin, not dollars in the United States. This is because it will be impossible to use any other currency to measure BTC value.
“What is my prediction for this cycle’s top? He wrote that he believes this is the final cycle. It will take us to saturation.
“Thus, the top of the cycle is easy to choose. It will be 1 BTC =1 BTC.
In a separate post, I noted the closeness of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to U.S. dollars M2 supply. He said that the future five-year situation — the end of the current cycle, and the beginning of the next — will be “very fascinating.”