Ether (ETH), Ethereum’s native token, rose by more than 15% during the first 12 days in October. However, in comparison to Bitcoin’s (BTC), 30% gains over the same period, Ether (ETH) is currently in a downtrend when it comes to BTC.
The ETH/BTC exchange rate plunged by more than 12% in October and the fourth quarter 2021. It reached 0.060215 BTC on Oct. 12, the first time it has been since Oct. 12.
Daily price chart for ETH/BTC Source: TradingView
The drop also pushed ETH/BTC under one of its longest-standing support areas, the 200-day exponentialmoving average (200-day EMA) as shown in the chart. With 0.055304 BTC as the next target, this raises the risk for more downside.
Bitcoin dominance grows on ETF hopes
The rise of Bitcoin in the crypto market is more evidence that ETH/BTC is weak.
The Bitcoin Dominance Index measures the capitalization of the flagship cryptocurrency against the rest of crypto market capitalization. It rose from 42.39% to 46.64% between Oct. 1 and Oct. 12. Ether’s dominance, however, dropped from 18.15% down to 17.57% during the same period.
Daily chart of Bitcoin dominance index. Source: TradingView
This shows that Bitcoin has received more capital than other altcoins in October.
Related: Bitcoin investors are dumping their money on institutional crypto products
With Bitcoin’s rising popularity, there were expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission would approve four Bitcoin-based exchange traded funds (ETFs) within weeks. Global X Bitcoin Trust is, Valkyrie XBTO Bitcoin futures Fund, WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust and Kryptoin Bitcoin ETF are the applicants.
Gary Gensler, SEC Chair, hinted at an optimistic outcome in Bitcoin ETFs, despite the fact that similar applications have been rejected by the SEC for eight consecutive years. Gensler pointed out that the Bitcoin ETF applicants had filed this time under the Investment Company Act of 1940 which provides greater investor protection.
Two “light” Bitcoin ETFs were launched earlier this week in the U.S.: Invesco Galaxy Crypto Economy ETF(SATO) and Invesco Galaxy Blockchain Users and Decentralized commerce ETF (BLKC). The funds only invest 80% in crypto-related businesses, and not Bitcoin.
Chart of the SATO ETF 15 minute price. Source: TradingView
A third crypto equity ETF was also approved by the SEC. The Volt Crypto Industry Revolution (BTCR) and Tech ETF will be exposed to “entities that hold a majority or more of their net assets or derive a majority their earnings from mining, lending, or transacting bitcoin.”
Bitcoin will go “insane”
James Seyffart is an ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He said that the news would be “very bullish for Bitcoin.” Lark Davis, an independent market analyst, predicts similarly insane market reactions if the SEC approves a Bitcoin ETF with exposure to actual BTC.
People are not prepared for the insane market movements once a #bitcoin ETF is approved.
Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark), October 8, 2021
It appears that traders have been influenced by speculation about Bitcoin ETF approvals. BTC has outperformed its top competitors, Ether.
Ethereum, however, has a strong decentralized app ecosystem that is the driving force behind the boom in decentralized finance and non-fungible token sectors.
David Gokhshtein is the founder of PAC Global and Gokhshtein Media. He noted that Ethereum’s strong network effect could see Ether reach $10,000 by the end this year. As Cointelegraph reported, a continuing supply crunch in Ether markets should be a key talking point for bulls going forward.
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