In the past two weeks, Ethereum’s native token Ether has fallen by about 17% against USD. Its performance against Bitcoin (BTC), however, has been more pleasant with the ETH/BTC exchange rate dropping 4.5% in the same time period.
As both ETH/USD (and BTC/USD) drop almost in unison, the pair is reacting to the Federal Reserve’s potential plans to raise rates by 50 basis points and reduce its balance sheet to $95 billion per monthly.
According to the latest data, prices for consumers rose 8.5% in March, which is the highest level since 1981.
BTC/USD vs. USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView
Breakout of the ETH/BTC triangle
Despite ETH/BTC falling in the past two weeks, several technical indicators remain bullish. The continuation pattern is a classic continuation pattern that suggests the pair could resume its bull run in 2022.
ETH/BTC is now trading at a horizontal resistance level, which constitutes an ascending triangular range with rising trendline support.
Ascending triangles tend to move the price in the same direction as their prior trends. Based on the chart below, ETH/BTC rallied before forming one. It’s therefore possible that its bull run could continue to its February 2018 highs of 0.1 BTC.
ETH/BTC weekly chart with ascending triangle setup. Source: TradingView
ETH/BTC is aiming for a correction towards the lower trendline of the triangle after its pullback from higher trendline.
The bearish reversal scenario
Samurai Trading Academy’s study shows that ascending triangle breakouts achieve their upside targets in 73% of cases.
Veteran investor Tom Bulkowski highlights a 70% success rate in ascending triangles and underlines the strong possibility that Ether could reach 0.10 BTC by 2022.
Related: Bitcoin recovers $40K in 24-hour crypto liquidations close to $500M
ETH/BTC still has a 30% chance of invalidating its ascending triangle setup.
Weekly price chart for ETH/BTC Source: TradingView
The pair will eventually break below its lower trendline in its triangle, which coincides with its 50 week exponential moving average (the red waves in the chart above), near 0.06 BTC. This opens the possibility of a further fall to 0.05 BTC. This support zone is from May-June 2021.
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